Byron R. Wien, Vice Chairman, Blackstone Advisory Partners, today issued his list of Surprises for 2013. This is the 28th year Byron has given his views on a number of economic, financial market and political surprises for the coming year. Byron defines a "surprise" as an event which the average investor would only assign a one out of three chance of taking place but which Byron believes is "probable", having a better than 50% likelihood of happening.
Byron started the tradition in 1986 when he was the Chief U.S. Investment Strategist at Morgan Stanley. Byron joined Blackstone in September 2009 as a Senior Advisor to both the firm and its clients in analyzing economic, political, market and social trends.
Byron's Ten Surprises for 2013 are as follows:
1. Iran announces it has adequate enriched uranium to produce a nuclear-armed missile and the International Atomic Energy Agency confirms the claim. Sanctions, the devaluation of the currency, weak economic conditions and diplomacy did not stop the weapons program. The world must deal with Iran as a nuclear threat rather than talk endlessly about how to prevent the nuclear capability from happening. Both the United States and Israel shift to a policy of containment rather than prevention. 2. A profit margin squeeze and limited revenue growth cause 2013 earnings for the Standard & Poor's 500 to decline below $100, disappointing investors. The S&P 500 trades below 1300. Companies complain of limited pricing power in a slow, highly competitive world economic environment. 3. Financial stocks have a rough time, reversing the gains of 2012. Intense competition in commercial and investment banking, togeth