Currency Positioning and Technical Outlook Holiday Mode

  The US dollar rebounded smartly at the end of last week as the realization that it was increasingly likely the US would go over the fiscal cliff.  This has been our base case, but many seemed to expect it to be averted and were looking past it.      The collapse of Boehner's so-called Plan B, due to the lack of sufficient Republican support, would not have passed the Senate, where the Democrats enjoy a slim majority, in any event.  The entire negotiations are now in disarray, as is the national Republican Party.   After a holiday break, new negotiations will begin on December 27, giving officials five days to reach an agreement.   A fall back plan--an interim agreement--aimed at avoiding the tax increases and spending cuts that would drive the economy over he cliff, risking new increases in unemployment,  will also being discussed. ...