December 2012 Pending Home Sales Index Shows Slowdown

Written by Steven Hansen The December 2012 pending home sales index released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) was released today, and our analysis suggests: Econintersect's uses the December pending home sales data to forecast the January 2013 home sales - and our January 2013 forecast is 265,000 (see details below); If this 265,000 historical correlation is correct, this would only be a 1.1% gain year-over-year in January existing home sales, but still the 19th month in a row of year-over-year gains. Unadjusted actual December existing home sales were down 8.0% month-over-month, Up 6.9% year-over-year. The rate of growth in 2012 was flat - in other words the growth rate is remaining inside a channel neither accelerating or decelerating. The NAR reported the January pending home sales index down 4.3% month-over-month and up 6.9% year-over-year, while the market was e...