Deja Vu

From SharePlanner
April 7, 2015 - 9:24am

ES had a very strong day yesterday and broke back over resistance at the weekly middle band (now at 2063), the 50 hour MA (now at 2069), the 5 DMA (now at 2072), and the daily middle band (now at 2073.5). The stats are bearish for today and we may well see a retest to establish whether the resistance broken yesterday will now act as support. If so then I would be very edgy about any significant break under the 50 hour MA at 2069 and on any break under 2067 I'd be expecting a full reversal candle breaking back below the daily middle band today. I've written a few times in recent weeks about the unusual 5 DMA setup here. I've looked back as far as the start of 2007 without finding a single example of a decent break over the 5 DMA, that was reversed within two days, that did not then deliver a lower low before higher highs. As SPX stands here we have had two such breaks in the last four weeks and since then SPX has neither made a low under 2039, nor a higher high over 2119. SPX daily 5DMA chart: Either we break down to take the 2039 low out in the very near future or the triangle I have been looking at is forming, and we will most likely find out which at the retest of the daily middle band today. If the middle band holds, then I have triangle resistance in the 2112 area, and if the middle band folds then I'd be looking for a break back below 2039 in the near future, most likely this week.SPX 60min chart: Read more...


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