Durable Goods New Orders Are Less than Good in December 2012

Written by Steven Hansen The Headlines say the durable goods sector improved in December.  This analysis says the opposite as the unadjusted new orders are barely above December 2011 levels. The headlines say backlog improved marginally this month  - but the unadjusted data says backlog improved significantly (mostly caused by defense). Backlog is THE indicator of health of this sector. Econintersect Analysis: new orders down 0.3% (down 5.7% last month) month-over-month, and up 0.2% year-over-year Inflation adjusted new orders are up 1.1% month-over-month, and down 3.3% year-over-year production (inflation adjusted using the Federal Reserve's Industrial Production Index - durable goods) down 0.5% month-over-month, up 5.4% year-over-year [note that this is a series with moderate backward revision - and it uses production as a pulse point (not new orders or shipments)] backlo...