Economic Forecast January 2013: Weak Expansion but Hints of Improvement

Written by Steven Hansen Econintersect continues to forecast a "less good" economy using real time non-monetary pulse points. The index is forecasting weak economic expansion for Main Street - and remains clearly in a declining growth trend (positive growth, negative acceleration). Having said that, there are several indications in the data of strengthening - and it is our belief that in the coming months a new strengthening trend will appear. As a note of interest, many of the markers NBER uses to date a recession disappeared this month as 3 of the 4 data sets used rose to new post recession peaks.  Only Industrial Production recession marker remains. Econintersect checks its forecast using several alternate methods. One of our "check" forecasts remains recessionary - however this check method is "much less" bad and very near expansion territory. This unfortunately is not an un...