Economy / Finance

Engineering growth: Innovative capacity and development

Mar 23 8:00pm Recent Articles
The generation and diffusion of scientific knowledge and technology are assumed to be drivers of modern economic growth, but there is a lack of firm empirical evidence of this. This column uses the first detailed data on the density of engineers in the western hemisphere to argue that historical differences in innovative capacity, as captured by the density of engineers in 1880, explain a significant fraction of the Great Divergence. The results confirm the imperative of developing higher-order human capital.
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When Britain turned inward

Mar 23 8:00pm Recent Articles
With Brexit looming, and protectionist pressures mounting elsewhere in the developed world, the question of whether trade policy matters is taking on more significance. This column looks at the extent to which trade policy was responsible for the shift towards intra-imperial trade in the interwar period. Both tariffs and quotas increased the Empire’s share of British trade, suggesting that trade policy mattered more for interwar trade patterns than the cliometric literature has suggested.
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Yield Spreads Often Narrow Amid Rate Hikes

Mar 23 6:34pm Credit Trends from Moody's Analytics
Because rate hikes ordinarily occur amid above-average business activity and profits growth, the high-yield bond spread shows a decidedly below-trend median of 387 bp for those spans of the last 30 years that start with a rate hike and end with the final month prior to a rate cut.
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Economic Roundup: U.S. Political Risks Mount

Mar 23 5:34pm Credit Trends from Moody's Analytics
The healthcare vote was delayed, and the odds of corporate tax reform this year are fading.
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Nunes and Schiff Deserve Each Other Are There any Grown-Ups in the House?

Mar 23 4:46pm A Marketplace for Ideas
House Intelligence Chairman Devin Nunes was irresponsible and wrong. Ranking House Intelligence Committee Democrat Adam Schiff was irresponsible and wrong.  The House Intelligence Committee investigation into possible Russian interference in the presidential election has become a farce. Loyalty to the Committee has been discarded.  Dedication to truth-finding has been jettisoned.  Congressmen Nunes and Schiff deserve … Continue reading Nunes and Schiff Deserve Each Other – Are There any Grown-Ups in the House? The post Nunes and Schiff Deserve Each Other – Are There any Grown-Ups in the House? appeared first on A Marketplace for Ideas.
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This DiMicco Guy Is Precisely the Sort of Business Person Upon Whom Adam Smith Rightly Poured Such Scorn

Mar 23 4:24pm Cafe Hayek
TweetIn the comments section of Kristofer Harrison’s nice expose of the cronyism that drives Uncle Sam’s protection of U.S. steel producers, Daniel Dimicco – former CEO of Nucor Steel – wrote: Your commentary couldn’t be more misleading and dead wrong. Rather than the picture you paint, the Steel Industry is the “canary in the coal […] The post This DiMicco Guy Is Precisely the Sort of Business Person Upon Whom Adam Smith Rightly Poured Such Scorn appeared first on Cafe Hayek.
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CBO Projections of Coverage under the ACA

Mar 23 3:36pm Econbrowser
We all know that the CBO has been under assault over the recent scoring of the AHCA (14 million reduction in coverage by 2018, 26 million by 2026), with allegations that their previous projections have been “wrong”. I document in this post that CBO macro projections have been comparable to Blue Chip averages, in terms […]...
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The Difference Between Markets and Politics

Mar 23 2:45pm Cafe Hayek
TweetPeople succeed in markets by reducing scarcity – that is, by easing scarcity’s grip on their fellow humans.  And the more they ease scarcity’s grip, the greater their success.  Profits are earned in competitive markets only by successfully making desired goods and services less scarce than they would otherwise be. People succeed in politics by […] The post The Difference Between Markets and Politics appeared first on Cafe Hayek.
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Can market based regulation reduce greenhouse gas emissions? Evidence from America

Mar 23 1:25pm Microeconomic Insights
Market-based mechanisms such as ‘cap-and-trade’ have become increasingly popular policy tools for reducing harmful emissions. But designing these schemes so that emissions are curbed efficiently requires understanding key elements of an industry’s structure, notably the degree of market power and the extent to which unregulated foreign producers compete with domestic firms. This research investigates these issues in the US cement industry, an emissions-intensive sector exposed to foreign competition. The findings suggest that the optimal regulatory policy in such industries may be to rebate compliance costs partially on the basis of output or to impose border tax adjustments. The post Can market based regulation reduce greenhouse gas emissions? Evidence from America appeared first on Microeconomic Insights.
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Mutant Capitalism rears its ugly head in Arlington

Mar 23 1:10pm Neighborhood Effects
Confectionery-giant Nestlé plans to move its U.S. headquarters from California to 1812 North Moore in the Rosslyn area of Arlington in the next few years. This should be great news for the people of Arlington—a world-famous company has decided that Arlington County is the best place to be in the U.S. This must be due […]...
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Carney, financial sector ethics, and Hogg

Mar 23 12:53pm longandvariable
Mark Carney gave opening remarks on a panel on ‘law, ethics and culture in banking’.  I thought they were unfortunate. They come shortly after the resignation of Charlotte Hogg, newly appointed Deputy Governor at the BoE.  She had forgotten to … Continue reading →...
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Top House tax writer suggests measures to mitigate the impact of the border tax

Mar 23 12:50pm Economy
House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Kevin Brady offers ideas on how to blunt the initial impact of a border adjustment tax on imports.
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Its Time to Pass the Financial Institutions Bankruptcy Act

Mar 23 12:09pm Economics One
Today the House Judiciary Subcommittee lead by Tom Marino held a hearing on the Financial Institution Bankruptcy Act (FIBA) which lays out in clear legislative language the “Chapter 14 type” reform proposals that Stanford’s Hoover Resolution Project have been working … Continue reading →...
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The Trump administration will review all of Americas trade deals

Mar 23 11:44am Economics
ACCORDING to a document crafted by the Trump administration, a model trade agreement has 24 elements. Second on the list is “trade-deficit reduction”, giving a hint as to why Mr Trump wants to review America’s existing agreements. In January Sean Spicer, his press secretary, said the administration would “re-examine all of the current trade deals.” A presidential order to do just that is reported to be in the offing.America boasts 14 bilateral and regional free-trade agreements (FTAs). Mr Trump seems to blame these agreements for America’s large trade deficit. Most economists disagree, seeing it as reflecting macroeconomic imbalances. The FTAs are in any case with countries representing just two-fifths of America’s two-way trade in goods, and less than 10\% of its goods-trade deficit (see chart). Most (77\%) of America’s deficit stems from trade with China, the European Union and Japan. None has an American FTA.A focus on trade deficits means that tiddly deals such as those with Jordan and Oman will not face much heat. NAFTA (an agreement with Mexico and Canada), and KORUS (South Korea), will face more scrutiny because of chunky...Continue reading...
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The unusual gap between American and European bond yields

Mar 23 11:44am Economics
AMERICA may be the world’s largest economy, but these days its government pays more than many others to borrow money. Its ten-year bond yields are higher than those in Britain, France, Singapore and even Italy.The gap between American and German ten-year yields has been above two percentage points. For much of the past 25 years, it was very rare for the difference to exceed a single percentage point. On occasions, American yields fell below German levels (see chart).Go back a generation and you might have expected the country with the higher bond yields to be the one with the weaker currency; investors would demand a higher yield to compensate for the risk of future depreciation. But that is not the case today. The dollar has been strong, relative to the euro, and many people expect it to strengthen further. Indeed, the higher yield on American government debt is one reason why investors might want to buy the dollar.Instead, the gap may reflect differences in both monetary and fiscal policy. In America the Federal Reserve stopped buying Treasury bonds a while ago and has raised interest rates three times since December 2015; the European...Continue reading...
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Why Wall Street should stop freaking out about the health-care vote

Mar 23 11:03am Economy
Investors' fears about the Obamacare repeal aren't likely to be realized, according to analyses ahead of Thursday's vote.
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Florida Prosecutor Seizes Legislative Powers Unilateral Decision to Destroy the Rule of Law

Mar 23 10:26am A Marketplace for Ideas
The Florida Constitution provides that “[t]he legislative power of the state shall be vested in a legislature of the State of Florida.”  So, does a Florida state attorney have the power to change that law?  Florida prosecutor Aramis Ayala apparently thinks so.  She decided that she will never seek the death penalty in any capital … Continue reading Florida Prosecutor Seizes Legislative Powers – Unilateral Decision to Destroy the Rule of Law The post Florida Prosecutor Seizes Legislative Powers – Unilateral Decision to Destroy the Rule of Law appeared first on A Marketplace for Ideas.
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The Exports of Innovative Countries

Mar 23 5:30am On the Economy blog
The more innovative a country is, the more it seems to export from sectors that are technologically intensive.
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Safety, liquidity, and the natural rate of interest

Mar 23 12:00am Brookings Topics - U.S. Economic Performance
In “Safety, liquidity, and the natural rate of interest,” Marco Del Negro, Domenico Giannone, Marc P. Giannoni, and Andrea Tambalotti of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York find that the secular decline in the natural rate of interest (the real rate of return that prevails when the economy is at its potential) in the […]        ...
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Working class white Americans are now dying in middle age at faster rates than minority groups

Mar 23 12:00am Brookings Topics - U.S. Economic Performance
In 2015, Princeton Professors Anne Case and Angus Deaton made global headlines after documenting a shocking rise in the proportion of white non-Hispanic Americans dying in middle age. This year, as part of the Spring 2017 edition of the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Professors Case and Deaton are following up on that research to […]        ...
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Monetary policy in a low interest rate world

Mar 23 12:00am Brookings Topics - U.S. Economic Performance
In “Monetary policy in a low interest-rate world,” the Federal Reserve Board’s Michael T. Kiley and John M. Roberts, using standard economic models, find that rates could hit zero as much as 40 percent of the time—twice as often as predicted in work by others—according to standard economic models of the type used at the […]         ...
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Along the watchtower: The rise and fall of U.S. low-skilled immigration

Mar 23 12:00am Brookings Topics - U.S. Economic Performance
In “Along the watchtower: The rise and fall of U.S. low-skilled immigration,” Gordon H. Hanson, Chen Liu, and Craig McIntosh of the University of California San Diego find immigration to the U.S. of young, low-skilled workers will continue to slow until it reverses in 2050, regardless of U.S. policy, thanks to weak labor-supply growth in […]        ...
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The disappointing recovery of output after 2009

Mar 23 12:00am Brookings Topics - Labor Policy
In “The disappointing recovery of output after 2009,” the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco’s John Fernald, Stanford’s Robert Hall, Harvard’s James Stock, and Princeton’s Mark Watson look to answer a question vexing many economists: Why the nation is experiencing sluggish GDP growth rates given the steady decline of the unemployment rate post-Great Recession? They […]        ...
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Two New Working Papers

Mar 22 9:25pm Stochastic Trend
We have just posted two new working papers: Technology Choices in the U.S. Electricity Industry before and after Market Restructuring and An Analysis of the Costs of Energy Saving and CO2 Mitigation in Rural Households in China.The first paper, coauthored with Zsuzsanna Csereklyei, is the first to emerge from our ARC funded DP16 project.  Our goal was to look at the factors associated with the adoption of more or less energy efficient electricity generating technologies using a detailed US dataset. For example, combined cycle gas turbines are more energy efficient than regular gas turbines and supercritical coal boilers are more efficient than subcritical. Things are complicated by the different roles that these technologies play in the electricity system. Because regular gas turbines are less energy efficient but have lower capital costs they are mainly used to provide peaking power, while combined cycle turbines contribute more to baseload. So comparing combined cycle gas to subcritical coal makes more sense as a test of how various factors affect the choice of energy efficiency than comparing the two types of gas turbine technologies.Additionally, some US regions underwent electricity market reform where either just wholesale or both wholesale and retail markets were liberalized, while other regions have retained integrated regulated utilities, which are typically guaranteed a rate of return on capital. Unless regulators press utilities to adopt energy efficient technologies there is much less incentive under rate of return than under wholesale markets to do so.The graph shows that following widespread market reform at the end of the 20th Century there was big boom in investment in the two main natural gas technologies. More recently renewables have played an increasing role and there was a revival of investment in coal up to 2012. These trends are also partly driven by the lagged (because investment takes time) effects of fuel prices:We find that electricity market deregulation resulted in significant immediate investment in various natural gas technologies, and a reduction in coal investments. However, market deregulation impacted less negatively on high efficiency coal technologies. In states that adopted wholesale electricity markets, high natural gas prices resulted in more investment in coal and renewable technologies.There is also ev...
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Cyclical forces in the global trade slowdown

Mar 22 8:00pm Recent Articles
Recent global trade growth is even more disappointing than global GDP growth. This column argues that this unexpected weakness of trade relative to GDP is related to the high volatility and pro-cyclicality of real trade flows, and that cyclical forces are the main drivers. It also shows that the accuracy of existing trade forecasts can be improved using real-time data on business conditions.
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Economic growth and reductions in carbon emissions

Mar 22 8:00pm Recent Articles
Most policies that target climate change – such as carbon taxes and cap-and-trade programmes – have long-term benefits but short-term economic costs. This column argues that population policies may not be subject to this trade-off. In particular, policies that reduce population growth can have a direct positive effect on income per capita as well as lowering growth of carbon emissions. Such policies could play an important role in the portfolio of actions aimed at mitigating climate change.
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Overvalued Stocks Are Vulnerable to a Deep Drop Once Profits Inevitably Shrink

Mar 22 6:34pm Credit Trends from Moody's Analytics
Once again, inflation anxiety may prove to be unwarranted.
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Economic Roundup: Existing-Home Sales Weaken in February

Mar 22 5:34pm Credit Trends from Moody's Analytics
No cause for alarm, though signs point to further softening.
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Peter Navarro Knows Not About What He Writes

Mar 22 4:52pm Cafe Hayek
TweetHere’s a letter to the Wall Street Journal: The headline is promising: “Peter Navarro Responds to His Trade Critics” (March 22).  So I eagerly anticipated reading Navarro’s substantive defense, against knowledgeable critics, of his reasons for fearing trade deficits.  Alas, disappointment.  Navarro offers not a single relevant argument. Typical is his contemptuous treatment of Dan […] The post Peter Navarro Knows Not About What He Writes appeared first on Cafe Hayek.
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Economic shocks are more likely to be lethal in America

Mar 22 3:41pm Economics
AMERICAN workers without college degrees have suffered financially for decades—as has been known for decades. More recent is the discovery that their woes might be deadly. In 2015 Anne Case and Angus Deaton, two (married) scholars, reported that in the 20 years to 1998, the mortality rate of middle-aged white Americans fell by about 2\% a year. But between 1999 and 2013, deaths rose. The reversal was all the more striking because, in Europe, overall middle-age mortality continued to fall at the same 2\% pace. By 2013 middle-aged white Americans were dying at twice the rate of similarly aged Swedes of all races (see chart). Suicide, drug overdoses and alcohol abuse were to blame.Ms Case and Mr Deaton have now updated their work on these so-called “deaths of despair”. The results, presented this week at the Brookings Institution, a think-tank, are no happier. White middle-age mortality continued to rise in 2014 and 2015, contributing to a fall in life expectancy among the population as a whole. The trend transcends geography. It is found in almost every state, and in both cities and rural areas. The problem seems to be getting worse over time. Deaths from...Continue reading...
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More on Real Versus Fake Wants

Mar 22 2:45pm Cafe Hayek
TweetHere’s a letter to Intissar Guettou, who is with ReportLinker Thanks for e-mailing your press release announcing the results of a survey showing that “57\% of Americans are ready to pay more for ‘Made in USA’ products.” Alas, I’m confident that these survey results are utterly unreliable.  The reason for my confidence is that Americans […] The post More on Real Versus Fake Wants appeared first on Cafe Hayek.
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Surprised and Dismayed?

Mar 22 1:33pm Cafe Hayek
TweetBelow is a letter to WTOP Radio in Washington.  When I heard this college-age kid express his ‘surprise’ I burst out laughing. I’m struck by the young man interviewed on your station, during the 12pm hour, who said that the politics on display at the Senate hearings on Neil Gorsuch’s Supreme Court nomination is “surprising […] The post Surprised and Dismayed? appeared first on Cafe Hayek.
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Older adults have much to offerand much to gain frominnovation districts

Mar 22 1:04pm Brookings Topics - Economic Development
 Innovation districts—dense geographies that concentrate innovation capacity and encourage entrepreneurial activity—have decided appeal for those who want to live and work in walkable, amenity-rich urban areas. We tend to think of these neighborhoods as places for millennials and Gen Xers working in the innovation economy. But many of the factors that make innovation districts attractive […]        ...
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Ill be speaking at Amherst College on Thursday!

Mar 22 12:31pm The Incidental Economist
Any longtime reader of the blog knows how much I love Amherst College, having graduated from there in 1994. For the second time in recent years, I’ll be getting to head back there in a more professorial role. I’ll be meeting with a lot of pre-med students, talking in a health economics class, and giving […]...
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Why Cystic Fibrosis Patients in Canada Outlive Those in the U.S.

Mar 22 12:27pm The Incidental Economist
The following originally appeared on The Upshot (copyright 2017, The New York Times Company). Cystic fibrosis is an inherited disorder that affects the lungs, pancreas, intestines and other organs. A genetic mutation leads to secretory glands that don’t work well; lungs can get clogged with thick mucus; the pancreas can become plugged up; and the gut can […]...
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Greater Imports Are Both an Effect AND a Cause of Economic Growth

Mar 22 11:04am Cafe Hayek
TweetHere’s a letter to the Wall Street Journal: Yukon Huang correctly argues that, as the title of his essay explains, “America’s Trade Deficit With China Doesn’t Matter” (March 22).  Yet in reaching this sound conclusion he inadvertently strengthens protectionists’ hands by perpetuating other common myths about trade deficits. For example, Mr. Huang confusingly writes that […] The post Greater Imports Are Both an Effect AND a Cause of Economic Growth appeared first on Cafe Hayek.
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Mester says favors steps this year to reduce Fed's balance sheet

Mar 22 8:58am Economy
Cleveland Fed President Mester said that if the economic data holds up she supports the U.S. central bank taking steps that would begin to reduce its debt.
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Beyond millennials: Valuing older adults participation in innovation districts

Mar 22 8:45am Brookings Topics - Economic Development
Throughout the world, the spatial geography of innovation is shifting. Driven by market trends and the preferences of both firms and workers, new, distinctly urban concentrations of research-oriented anchor institutions, companies, intermediaries, cultural amenities, and retail and residential space are developing into dynamic innovation districts. These dense enclaves—found largely but not exclusively in cities—produce environments […]        ...
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Donald Trump, trade and the new world order

Mar 22 8:08am Economics
TWO months into the Trump administration and we have had more sound and fury than concrete proposals about its economic agenda. The most alarming sign so far is that America forced the G20 to drop a pledge about resisting “all forms of protectionism” from a joint statement but this may be purely symbolic.Nevertheless, Mr Trump’s determination to shake up the status quo may yet have global consequences. In a research note, Chris Watling of Longview Economics suggests thatTrump’s policies might inadvertently bring about a new international monetary order as the administration struggles to fulfil campaign promises in the light of the original misdiagnosis of the ‘trade deficit’ problem.The current monetary system emerged from the downfall of Bretton Woods in the 1970s. Under the Bretton Woods system, devised in part by John Maynard Keynes (pictured, left), currencies were fixed to the dollar (with scope for occasional devaluations or revaluations) and the dollar was fixed against gold. But this required America to act as the anchor of the system; other...Continue reading...
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Podcast: A most unusual company

Mar 22 7:07am Economics
The one-time bookseller Amazon accounts for more than half of every new dollar spent online in the US. But how did it get to be the fifth most valuable company in the world? Also: why it costs the American government more to borrow money on the bonds market than European ones. And the big brands used to account for two-thirds of the tyre market. Now China has massively deflated their share. Simon Long hosts.
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Mortgage applications fall 2.7%, as borrowers turn to riskier loans

Mar 22 7:00am Economy
Higher housing costs have borrowers searching for the best deals on home loans.
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Hot US real estate a potential red flag, warns Fed's Rosengren

Mar 22 6:06am Economy
The run-up in U.S. real estate prices could potentially amplify any future economic downturn, a Federal Reserve official said on Tuesday.
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Fed's Kaplan sees 3 rate hikes in 2017, no rush on balance sheet

Mar 22 5:51am Economy
The Fed should raise rates two more times this year and continue work on a plan to trim its massive balance sheet, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said.
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Ricardos Remarkable Idea

Mar 21 10:38pm Cafe Hayek
TweetApril 19th will be the 200th anniversary of the publication of David Ricardo’s On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation.  My most-recent column in the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review discusses the most famous innovation in economic analysis that was revealed in that book: the principle of comparative advantage.  A slice: He [Ricardo] explained that a country’s […] The post Ricardo’s Remarkable Idea appeared first on Cafe Hayek.
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Bail-ins and Bank Resolution in Europe: A Progress Report

Mar 21 8:00pm Recent Articles
The 4th Special Report in the Geneva Reports on the World Economy series reviews the current status of bail-ins and bank resolution in Europe. It provides a critical comparison of the US and EU bank resolution rules, examines European banking failures, and makes a number of policy recommendations concerning governance, stress testing, cross-border issues and resolution of financial contracts.
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Exchange rate implications of border tax adjustment neutrality

Mar 21 8:00pm Recent Articles
A border tax adjustment from origin-based taxation to destination-based taxation is under consideration for corporate profit tax in the US. This column investigates the implications of such an adjustment for the nominal exchange rate, assuming the real equilibrium of the economy is unchanged. While conventional wisdom is that the currency of the country implementing the adjustment will appreciate by a percentage equal to the VAT or corporate profit tax rate, a depreciation of the same magnitude is just as likely. ...
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No More Rate Hikes If Share Prices and Treasury Yields Keep Falling

Mar 21 7:34pm Credit Trends from Moody's Analytics
In response to the shellacking incurred by equities, the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 2.42\%, which is down considerably from March 13’s close of 2.62\%.
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Economic Roundup: When Reality Sets In

Mar 21 5:34pm Credit Trends from Moody's Analytics
Sterling’s slump rears its head in February’s U.K. inflation data.
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Confirm Gorsuch? Shame on the Senate For A Broken Confirmation Process

Mar 21 4:22pm A Marketplace for Ideas
The Supreme Court confirmation process is hopelessly politicized. Should we confirm Gorsuch?  Democrats and Republicans have jointly destroyed legitimate consideration of any nominee.  They ignore what once were the traditional criteria for confirmation. Labeling and mischaracterization rule the day. A nominee from a President of one party is anathema to the other party.  The opposition party, … Continue reading Confirm Gorsuch? Shame on the Senate For A Broken Confirmation Process The post Confirm Gorsuch? Shame on the Senate For A Broken Confirmation Process appeared first on A Marketplace for Ideas.
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Automated truckings rapid rise overlooks the need for skilled labor

Mar 21 1:50pm Brookings Topics - Labor Policy
Automation has become one of the major ongoing stories regarding the future of the American economy. What began with the rise of robots—and loss of jobs—across manufacturing industries is now a full blown threat to traditional jobs across all industries, salary bands, and education requirements. The effects are wide-reaching, no job may be safe. On […]        ...
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Trying to Harpoon My White Whale

Mar 21 12:54pm Cafe Hayek
TweetHere’s an e-mail that I just sent to AEI’s James Pethokoukis: Mr. Pethokoukis: I admire your work greatly.  Even on those rare occasions when I disagree, I learn something from your writings.  So it’s with more than a little trepidation that I send this e-mail. You get much correct in your recent post “A brief, simple […] The post Trying to Harpoon My White Whale appeared first on Cafe Hayek.
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Historical Global Economic Data and Current Issues for Globalization

Mar 21 11:21am Curious Cat Investing and Economics Blog
The Great Convergence by Richard Baldwin makes some interesting points about “globalization.” I actually find the long term history the most interesting aspect. It is very easy for people today to forget the recently rich “West” has not always been so dominant. China and India/Pakistan accounted for 73\% of the world manufacturing output in 1750. […]...
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2017 Public Choice Outreach Conference

Mar 21 10:44am Cafe Hayek
TweetFrom Center for Study of Public Choice Director Alex Tabarrok: The annual Public Choice Outreach Conference is June 16-18th, at the Hyatt Arlington in Rosslyn, VA! Submit an application and please do encourage your students to apply. Here’s some more information. What is the Public Choice Outreach Conference? The Public Choice Outreach Conference is a compact lecture series designed as […] The post 2017 Public Choice Outreach Conference appeared first on Cafe Hayek.
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US current account shrinks in fourth quarter

Mar 21 9:14am Economy
The Commerce Department said on Tuesday the current account deficit fell 3.1 percent to $112.4 billion.
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Dont look now, but inflation may be about to surge

Mar 21 8:00am Economy
Investors aren't properly pricing rising inflation into their decision making, according to one portfolio manager.
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EconoFact: The Agricultural Implications of Mr. Trumps Policies

Mar 21 7:18am Econbrowser
That’s the title of a new EconoFact memo written by me: Nearly 70 percent of rural votes cast in the 2016 election went to Donald Trump. This phenomenon has been attributed in part to the declining fortunes of farmers. But rather than helping reverse this trend, several of the Trump administration’s policy proposals would negatively […]...
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Is OPEC Losing Its Ability to Influence Oil Prices?

Mar 21 5:30am On the Economy blog
OPEC and Russia jointly agreed in late 2016 to reduce oil production, but prices didn’t move much.
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Designing alcohol taxes

Mar 20 8:00pm Recent Articles
Governments have long used taxation to correct for the socially costly overconsumption of alcohol, but as the external cost of overconsumption varies across drinkers, a single tax rate is not optimal. This column argues that variation in preferences for different products and in price responsiveness across heavy and light drinkers provides scope to improve welfare by varying tax rates across alcohol products. The proposed framework is well suited to addressing other sources of external costs, such as obesity.
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Stocks Have Rallied Amid a 400 BP Yield Premium of Treasuries over Dividends

Mar 20 6:34pm Credit Trends from Moody's Analytics
By no means does a higher 10-year Treasury yield relative to the S&P 500 dividend yield signal impending doom for share prices.
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