Economy / Finance

Five ways the Maker Movement can help catalyze a manufacturing renaissance

Jan 4 12:08pm Brookings Topics - U.S. Economic Performance
Amid the hoopla of celebrating a deal to save 800 jobs at a Carrier Corp. factory in Indiana last month, President-elect Donald Trump promised to usher in a “new industrial revolution“—one that sounded as much like a social awakening as a manufacturing one. How will the nation achieve that renaissance, though? If past is prologue, […]        ...
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A better future for rural communities starts at the schoolhouse

Jan 4 12:06pm Brookings Topics - Economic Development
Donald Trump’s voters in rural areas and small towns made a point: they were left behind while a lot of the country made economic progress and they want that to change. It doesn’t matter whether you consider these voters adorable or deplorable. They have expressed a grievance in the most democratic of ways—through their votes. […]         ...
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The risk shift, revisited

Jan 4 11:41am Jared Bernstein | On the Economy
Over at WaPo. The piece focuses, in part, on the shift from DB to DC pensions and the ensuant hit to retirement security. On that theme, OTE’ers get special access to some revealing figures shared with me by EPI’s retirement security expert, Monique Morrissey, like this one. It shows that DC’s are both a lot... Read more...
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20 Most Popular Posts on the Curious Cat Investing and Economics Blog in 2016

Jan 4 11:24am Curious Cat Investing and Economics Blog
The most popular posts on the Curious Cat Investing and Economics blog in 2016 (by page views). Top 10 Countries for Manufacturing Production in 2010: China, USA, Japan, Germany… (posted in 2011) Manufacturing Output as a Percent of GDP by Country (1980 to 2008) (2010) Default Rates on Loans by Credit Score (2015)* Stock Market […]...
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Foresight Africa: Top priorities for Africa in 2017

Jan 4 10:36am Brookings Topics - Labor Policy
After a tumultuous 2016, sub-Saharan Africa is looking toward 2017 in the spirit of hope and opportunity. Technology continues to transform the continent, commodity-exporting countries are diversifying, and urban planning and city growth are being harnessed in ways that promote industrial development and improved livelihoods. In addition, with millions of young Africans entering the labor […]         ...
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Does foreign aid buy votes for bad governments? This study from Uganda shows the opposite.

Jan 4 9:36am Chris Blattman
A whopping 40\% of Uganda’s government budget comes from foreign aid. This is a regime that is getting more and more autocratic, going the way of an Ethiopia or (I fear) a Zimbabwe. So of all the angst about aid, and … Continue reading → The post Does foreign aid buy votes for bad governments? This study from Uganda shows the opposite. appeared first on Chris Blattman.
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Guest Contribution: Chinas Growing Influence on Asian Financial Markets

Jan 3 11:04pm Econbrowser
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Serkan Arslanalp, senior economist at the IMF. This post is based on the paper by the same title, coauthored with Wei Liao, Shi Piao, and Dulani Seneviratne (all of the IMF). China’s economy leaves nobody indifferent. The world is watching closely as the second […]...
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The effect of foreign investors on local housing markets

Jan 3 7:00pm VoxEU.org: Recent Articles
One of the factors driving house price growth in many countries is foreign investor demand. Using new UK data, this column argues that foreign investment has had a significant positive effect on house price growth in the last 15 years. The effect is not limited to expensive homes but ‘trickles down’ to less expensive properties, and is stronger where housing supply is less elastic. Foreign investment is also found to reduce the rate of home ownership, but there is no evidence of an effect on the housing stock or share of vacant homes.
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Following the Overseas Money

Jan 3 4:23pm macroblog
​​ Though the holiday season has come to a close, the forthcoming policy season may bring with it serious debate about a holiday of a different sort: a tax holiday that would allow corporations to repatriate accumulated profits currently held...
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Helping work reduce poverty

Jan 3 3:46pm Brookings Topics - Labor Policy
The problem of poverty in America has been an intractable one, despite nearly a century of public programs attempting to alleviate it. The government spends $1 trillion a year at the federal, state, and local levels, and yet 21\% of children under the age of 18 live in families with incomes below the federal poverty […]        ...
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Help me learn new skills in 2017 the schedule!

Jan 3 1:48pm The Incidental Economist
After my post asking for your recommendations for skills I should learn in 2017, I got a lot of great responses. If I didn’t choose yours, it’s likely because I already felt like I knew something about the subject, it involved a partner, or because I liked something else just a little bit more. There’s always […]...
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Todays public policies exacerbate our differences

Jan 3 1:13pm Neighborhood Effects
The evidence that land-use regulations harm potential migrants keeps piling up. A recent paper in the Journal of Urban Economics finds that young workers (age 22 – 26) of average ability who enter the labor force in a large city (metropolitan areas with a population > 1.5 million) earn a wage premium equal 22.9\% after […]...
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US spending on personal health care is crazypants

Jan 3 12:07pm The Incidental Economist
One of my fist big efforts on this blog was a ten point series on health care spending in the US. It also led to this video, which led to Healthcare Triage. It’s not surprising, therefore, that I have an ongoing interest in spending on health. A recent publication in JAMA got into the weeds […]...
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The Hutchins Center Explains: Public investment

Jan 3 11:59am Brookings Topics - U.S. Economic Performance
What is investment? How is it different from other types of government spending? Public spending can be divided into consumption and investment. Consumption spending goes for goods and services that produce benefits today, such as health care for the elderly or mowing the lawn on the Washington Mall.  Investment is spending that will provide benefits […]        ...
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A few more comments on the Republicans Corporate Tax Plan

Jan 3 11:18am Jared Bernstein | On the Economy
I didn’t want to jam too much into my piece last week on the interesting Border Adjustment Tax—common peeps, you know that BAT is a much better acronym than DBCFT (destination-based-cash-flow tax)—that House R’s want to use to replace the current corporate tax. Like I said, it’s a complicated bit of work about which we... Read more...
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This is why politicians fear cash transfer programs

Jan 3 10:45am Chris Blattman
The title of the UK Daily Mail article is “Just when you thought it couldn’t get any worse… YOUR cash is doled out in envelopes and on ATM cards loaded with money. Standing in line, Pakistani families wait at a … Continue reading → The post This is why politicians fear cash transfer programs appeared first on Chris Blattman.
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Artemisia: An Opera of Passion, Betrayal and Art

Jan 2 8:04pm Econbrowser
Music composed by Laura Schwendinger, libretto by Ginger Strand. Laura Schwendinger’s new opera, Artemisia, will be given its New York Premiere, presented by Trinity Church Wall Street and NOVUS NY, directed by Julian Wachner, as part of the Times Arrow Festival – A Celebration of Music and the Arts in the New World, for the […]...
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Sexual orientation and earnings

Jan 2 7:00pm VoxEU.org: Recent Articles
Previous studies on labour market discrimination based on sexual orientation have not revealed whether reported differences in earnings have been due to differences in the samples, populations, or outcomes, nor what the likely cause might be. Using a UK-wide dataset of sexual orientation and labour market earnings, this column shows that the overall difference in earnings for men who identify as gay is near zero irrespective of whether they are in a partnership or not, while women with a lesbian orientation have an earnings premium of about 5.5\%. Specialisation explains earnings differences th...
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Unusual outcomes and uncertain times

Jan 2 7:00pm VoxEU.org: Recent Articles
Uncertainty shocks are a major avenue of research in the quest to explain business cycles, as well as asset prices and financial crises. This column argues that three conceptually distinct types of uncertainty that are often modelled independently – ‘macro’ uncertainty about an aggregate variable such as GDP, ‘micro’ uncertainty about firms’ individual outcomes, and ‘higher-order’ uncertainty that people have about the beliefs of others – are in fact related because all three are tied to disaster risk.
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Are scientific advances getting harder to achieve? If so, what do we do?

Jan 2 10:15am The Incidental Economist
Nicholas Bloom, Charles Jones, John Van Reenen, and Michael Webb have a draft article asking a fundamental question: Is it getting harder to generate a new scientific finding? If it is getting harder, that’s bad news for medicine. Austin had a post a few months ago about increasing drug prices (see also the Figure below, from Elie […]...
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Headquarter separation and multi-plant operation

Jan 1 7:00pm VoxEU.org: Recent Articles
The core-periphery gap raises important questions for economic geography. Using Japanese data, this column examines firms’ decision to separate non-production activities from production plant facilities. Large plants, plants which intensively purchase materials, and plants located further from the core are more likely to have separate corporate headquarters, though the magnitude of this effect is small. Small-sized plants appear to be especially vulnerable to remoteness from urban cores.
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Why central bankers favour monetary policy inertia

Jan 1 7:00pm VoxEU.org: Recent Articles
The discussion of the delayed lift-off in US monetary policy is just the latest episode in a long-lasting debate over the causes of inertia in monetary policy. This column approaches the issue by assuming that psychological drivers can influence the decisions of central bankers. Loss aversion is one source of behavioural bias which can explain delays in changing the stance of monetary policy, including the fear of lift-off after a recession.
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Its here: CBPPs top graphs of last year!

Jan 1 12:00pm Jared Bernstein | On the Economy
Happy new year and welcome to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities top graphs of 2016 special! I’ll be your host, joined later by musical guest…whoops, sorry. What with the urgency of the moment, there’s no space for a band this year. So let’s jump into the facts and figures (and to be clear–and... Read more...
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Xmas Cheer: The Debt Is Not Our Biggest Problem

Dec 31 10:01pm Multiplier Effect
by Kerry Pechter Why do so many pundits and politicians, including the future director of the Office of Management and Budget, beat the debt drum so loudly and so often? It’s one of the most effective, and most abused, wedge issues in American politics. The nomination of Mick Mulvaney—deficit hawk, three-term Republican congressman from South […]...
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Pushing the Boundaries of Economics

Dec 31 5:07pm Quantitative Ease by Carola Binder
As a macroeconomist, I mostly research the types of concepts that are more traditionally associated with economics, like inflation and interest rates. But one of the great things about economics training, in my opinion, is that you receive enough general training to be able to follow much of what is going on in other fields. It is always interesting for me to read papers or attend seminars in applied microeconomics to see the wide (and expanding) scope of the discipline.Gary Becker won the Nobel Prize in 1992  for having extended the domain of microeconomic analysis to a wide range of hum...
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The Rs corp tax plan

Dec 30 1:53pm Jared Bernstein | On the Economy
A number of folks asked me what I thought of this part of the Republican’s tax plan–their corporate tax replacement–and that required some thought, as it’s very different than what we have. Here’s what I got, over at WaPo. I couldn’t fit it in the piece, but I wanted to reference the more jaundiced take... Read more...
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Africa in the news: SEC investigates Mozambiques bond scandal, Nigeria continues its fight against corruption, and Somalia swears in new parliament

Dec 30 11:39am Brookings Topics - Economic Development
U.S. financial regulator investigates Mozambique’s bond scandal This week, Mozambique’s tuna bond scandal saw a new development. The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is now investigating the sale of $850 million in bonds. The SEC has contacted bondholders, requesting the documents provided by Credit Suisse, VTB and BNP Paribas—the Swiss, Russian, and French […]         ...
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Me at the ASSA

Dec 30 10:14am Greg Mankiw
If you want to see me at the upcoming ASSA meeting in Chicago, here is some relevant information. I will be chairing a session on “Economic Issues Facing the New President,” with talks from Jason Furman (Council of Economic Advisers), Glenn Hubbard (Columbia University), Alan Krueger (Princeton University), and John Taylor (Stanford University). The session is on Saturday, January 7, starting at 10:15 am in the Hyatt Regency Chicago, Grand Ballroom AB.I will also be introducing the new edition (the 8th) of my Principles text, which has just published. You can meet me at the Cengage booth...
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IPAs Weekly Links

Dec 30 8:16am Chris Blattman
Guest post by Jeff Mosenkis of Innovations for Poverty Action. Chris Blattman is on the EconTalk podcast talking about his work with Stefan Dercon on sweatshops in Ethiopia. As an economist who studies poverty, one of the interesting things he learned from hanging … Continue reading → The post IPA’s Weekly Links appeared first on Chris Blattman.
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Last Trading of 2016: Which Way It Will Go?

Dec 30 4:33am
Last Trading of 2016: Which Way It Will Go?...
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The Kansas Palmer Drought Severity Index, Unit Roots, and Snakes in a Room

Dec 30 12:14am Econbrowser
In my post on modeling the Kansas economy, Rick Stryker takes me to task for modeling the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for Kansas as an I(1) process: I wouldn’t bother with the ADF test, since its null is non-stationarity and it has low power to reject. I would focus on the KPSS, since its […]...
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Global economic forces conspire to stymie U.S. manufacturing

Dec 29 4:27pm Brookings Topics - U.S. Economic Performance
One factor contributing to the rise of populist sentiment in the United States has been the decline in manufacturing jobs, from 17 million in 2000 to 11 million in 2010, with a small bounce-back since then. President-elect Trump promises to bring manufacturing jobs back. In thinking about policies that might accomplish this, it is important […]        ...
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Top Ten Most-Read Mises Wire Articles in 2016

Dec 29 2:17pm Mises Blog
A A Home | Feed | Blog.rssTop Ten Most-Read Mises Wire Articles in 2016 0 Views Mises.org continues to be one of the most high-traffic economics and commentary sites on the web, read by millions every year.In 2016, we published more than 1,000 new original articles in our online publication Mises Wire, with total readers increasing 34\% from 2015 to 2016, while total sessions — each visit to the site which can include visits to multiple articles — increased by 32 percent.Of all the great articles we published this year, here are the Top Ten most read on Mises.org:Laura Hilli...
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Help me learn new skills in 2017!

Dec 29 7:39am The Incidental Economist
After my very fulfilling 2016 of learning new things, I want to spend 2017 learning new skills. I’ve come up with a list, but I’m want your input on what I might do. I also want to see if you have better ideas. Ideally, I think that I’d like to dedicate two months each skill. I […]...
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The Year in Review, 2016: The Triumph of the Blowhards

Dec 28 11:52pm Econbrowser
Last year’s recap was subtitled “Ascent of the Blowhards”. Let’s hope the triumph is only temporary, and rational policy analysis once again becomes a valued commodity. January: The greatest threat to freedom is regulations for restaurant workers to wash their hands after going to the restroom? From Let’s Stipulate: Some Regulations Are Good. Sen. Thom […]...
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Ranking Economics Institutions Applying a Frontier Approach to RePEc data

Dec 28 8:50pm Stochastic Trend
Back in 2010 I posted that the RePEc ranking of economics institutions needed to be adjusted by size. Better quality institutions do tend to be bigger but as RePEc just sums up publications, citations etc rather than averaging them larger institutions also get a higher RePEc ranking even if they aren't actually better quality. In the post, I suggested using a frontier approach. The idea is that the average faculty member at Harvard perhaps is similar to one at Chicago (I haven't checked this), but because Harvard is bigger it is better. So, looking at average scores of faculty members might pr...
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Figures of the week: Africas 2016 growth rate and 2017 predictions

Dec 28 4:32pm Brookings Topics - Economic Development
In the 2016 publication of Foresight Africa, an annual publication by the Africa Growth Initiative at Brookings, we highlighted the continent’s low growth rate. The first chapter, Managing Economic Shocks: African Prospects in the Evolving External Environment, highlights the slow growth the continent has experienced in recent years and describes the prospects for recovery, along […]        ...
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Help me learn new things! The Recap

Dec 28 3:15pm The Incidental Economist
I wrote this back in 2010: A couple of years ago, I was reading a biography of Albert Einstein.  I was struck by how much he, and scientists like him, we versed in philosophy.  I realized it was one of the areas in which my education was deficient. This seemed like a big hole, especially […]...
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Consequences of repeal and delay

Dec 28 7:00am The Incidental Economist
The following originally appeared on The Upshot (copyright 2016, The New York Times Company). Republicans in Congress will soon be able to repeal Obamacare, as they have long wished to do. The Upshot’s health care columnists, Aaron E. Carroll and Austin Frakt, discuss the possibilities — the practical and the political. Austin: Though they could change their […]...
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AcademyHealth: An ACO performance update

Dec 27 12:00pm The Incidental Economist
You’re busy. You don’t have time to analyze the data, but you want to know if ACOs are working. My latest AcademyHealth post is for you. @afrakt...
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Guest Contribution: Demonetization on Five Continents

Dec 26 2:43pm Econbrowser
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared on December 22nd in Project Syndicate. Several countries are undergoing “demonetization” or currency reforms in which the government recalls bills of […]...
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Is any bit of positive fiscal impulse worth the money?

Dec 26 9:26am Jared Bernstein | On the Economy
I’ll be brief because I’m on vacation this week in an undisclosed location, but the hotel has solid wifi and the family’s still snoozing away, so let’s quickly talk a bit of fiscal impulse (FI). The discussion starts with ‘G’ in the GDP identity: Cons+Inv+Gov’t+Net Exports. An increase in G raises GDP, all else equal,... Read more...
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Kansas and the myth of trickle-down tax cuts

Dec 24 11:52am Jared Bernstein | On the Economy
I know, you’re busy wrapping presents and such, but allow me to intrude for a brief second to make sure you saw this WSJ piece about the ongoing supply-side tax cut experiment in Kansas. This is important not just because it’s a microcosm of the Trump tax plan, designed, in fact, by some of the... Read more...
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Holiday message from Team Vox and a few reading suggestions

Dec 23 7:00pm VoxEU.org: Recent Articles
Team Vox wishes to thanks all its readers and contributors for making 2016 a great year for the site. Vox will post no new columns between 25 December 2016 and 2 January 2017. There is, however, plenty to catch up on. This column presents a list of topical columns written by leading economists in 2016.
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Input-output linkages and income differences across countries

Dec 23 7:00pm VoxEU.org: Recent Articles
Economists are just starting to understand how observed input-output linkages and productivity differences are connected. This column investigates how differences in the distribution of sectoral input-output multipliers interact with sectoral productivities to determine cross-country differences in aggregate income. It finds that the impact of the linkages on productivity are substantial, which in turn has significant implications for policy.
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Policy analysis in a post-truth world

Dec 23 7:00pm VoxEU.org: Recent Articles
Exact predictions of policy outcomes and estimates of the state of the economy are routine; expressions of uncertainty are rare. This column argues that with the US approaching the beginning of an administration, the incredible certitude of past governmental policy analysis will soon seem a minor concern relative to what lies ahead.  Whereas analysis with incredible certitude makes predictions and estimates that are possibly true, analysis in a post-truth world makes predictions and estimates that are clearly false.
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Trends in Kansas GDP

Dec 23 4:42pm Econbrowser
Both Missouri and BEA Plains region (ex-Kansas) outpace Kansas GDP growth. Figure 1: Log real GDP for Missouri (blue), Kansas (red), and Plains ex-Kansas (green), 2011Q1=0. Gray shading denotes NBER defined recession dates; tan shading denotes Brownback era. Source: BEA, NBER, author’s calculations. Kansas real GDP now matches 2012Q1 levels, and is 5\% higher than […]...
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The Late, Great A Gill on India

Dec 23 11:52am Cheap Talk
On Brexit On worst restaurant in the world  ...
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Musical Interlude: Holiday Version (and assorted other goodies)

Dec 23 10:55am Jared Bernstein | On the Economy
Forgive me for simply pasting in an old post on the holiday music that gets the season going in my house, but I just don’t think you can improve on Lou Rawls” Veteran OTE’ers know that the holiday season doesn’t start around here until Lou Rawls says so.  And here he goes, with the funky... Read more...
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Banking deglobalisation: Spillovers and interactions of monetary and regulatory policies

Dec 22 7:00pm VoxEU.org: Recent Articles
Globalisation is in retreat, but while the slowdown in trade is widely recognised, what is more striking is the collapse of global trade flows. This column shows how banking deglobalisation is a substantial contributor to the slowdown in global trade. It finds that certain types of unconventional monetary policy, and their interactions with regulatory policy, can have important global spillovers. Policies designed to support domestic lending may have had the unintended consequence of amplifying the impact of microprudential capital requirements on external lending.
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Networks of value-added trade

Dec 22 7:00pm VoxEU.org: Recent Articles
Global Value Chains have become the paradigm for the international organisation of production in almost all sectors. Bilateral gross trade flows no longer accurately represent interconnections among countries, so new methods of analysis are needed. Using tools of network analysis, this column assesses the roles of goods and services as both inputs and outputs in GVCs between 1995 and 2011 and examines the profile of Germany, the US, China and Russia as suppliers of value added.
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Inequality, technology, globalization, and the false assumptions that sustain current inequities

Dec 22 3:24pm Jared Bernstein | On the Economy
Here’s a great interview with inequality scholar Branko Milanovic wherein he brings a much-needed historical and international perspective to the debate (h/t: C. Marr). Many of Branko’s points are familiar to my readers: yes, increased trade has upsides, for both advanced and emerging economies. But it’s not hard to find significant swaths hurt by globalization,... Read more...
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IPAs weekly links

Dec 22 1:45pm Chris Blattman
Guest post by Jeff Mosenkis of Innovations for Poverty Action. There are too many twists and turns to quote in the amazing story behind the refugee who brought us Transformers. The Canadian CEO who’s saved 200 Syrian refugees and counting. The … Continue reading → The post IPA’s weekly links appeared first on Chris Blattman.
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Figures of the week: Trends in sub-Saharan African debt and equity flows

Dec 22 1:40pm Brookings Topics - Economic Development
The World Bank recently launched its latest version of the International Debt Statistics publication and databases, which provide new data on international financial flows through 2015. The report highlights that net debt flows (defined as loan disbursements minus principal repayments) to low- and middle-income countries turned negative in 2015 for the first time since the […]        ...
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With Republicans in charge, 2017 could finally bring big changes in tax policy

Dec 22 11:55am Brookings Topics - Fiscal Policy
With the election of Donald Trump as president and the Republicans’ retention of a majority in the Senate and the House, the prospects for big changes in tax policy have increased dramatically.  Tax cuts unite almost all factions of the Republican Party.  As Speaker Paul Ryan mentioned in October, the plan would be to use […]        ...
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Show Us Your Model and Your Method

Dec 22 3:00am Economics One
In a Wall Street Journal op-ed today I addressed claims made by Neel Kashkari in an earlier op-ed about rules-based monetary reforms, showing that his claims that the reforms were mechanical or computer-run were simply false and misleading. Kashkari mentioned … Continue reading →...
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Trade Policy with China

Dec 21 9:41pm Econbrowser
Since President-elect Trump has nominated Peter Navarro* to direct the newly formed Trade Policy Council, now seems a good time to review some trade data. An inspection of the US-China trade balance would seem to highlight the need for some action, especially after comparing the US-China bilateral balance to the aggregate. Figure 1: US goods […]...
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