Guest Post: Will The Next Bear Market Be A Planned Event Or A Failure Of Central Planning?

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog, Ironically, the very success of stock market manipulation only thins the market of legitimate participants and thus increases the probability that risk that has been suppressed for years will erupt uncontrollably. Longtime correspondent B.C. recently shared some provocative thoughts on the nature of the next Bear Market. Bear markets are often defined as a decline of 20% or more from recent highs.  Alternatively, others look at long periods of subnormal returns as secular Bear Markets. For example, if officially measured inflation has reduced purchasing power by 35% since 2000, and total stock market returns (dividends plus appreciation) are 15%, then the real return of "buy and hold" is a negative 20%--a Bear Market by any reasonable metric.  That the stock market is manipulated is no longer in question. O...