Initial Claims Down 11% Vs. Same Week in 2011

From The Wall Street Examiner Email Bulletins Archive
December 27, 2012 - 2:52pm

The Labor Department reported that the seasonally adjusted (SA) representation of first time claims for unemployment declined by 12,000 to 350,000 from a revised 362,000 (was 361,000) in the advance report for the week ended December 22, 2012. The number was much batter  the consensus median estimate of 375,000 reported by Briefing.com in a survey of economists. Bloomberg reported a median estimate of 360,000. Dow Jones, which uses Econoday, had it at 365,000. They were all wrong, as usual.  It’s not really their fault. The seasonally adjusted estimates are the problem, because they attempt to represent data that is extremely volatile as an idealized smoothed version. Along with the headline seasonally adjusted data, which is the only data the media reports, the Department of Labor (DOL) reports the not seasonally adjusted data. The actual data was indeed very good for this week ...


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