Economy / Finance

Monetary Policy Analysis is Hard: Inflation Edition

From Macro and Other Market Musings
March 17, 2017 - 12:04pm
I have a new article at The Hill that responds to some of the buzz created  by the Cecchetti et al. (2017) paper that was delivered at the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum:What causes inflation? Most people believe inflation is caused by central banks adjusting monetary conditions... But is this right? A recent study by some top economists has raised questions about this conventional wisdom.  The study found that the standard indicators... [like] economic slack, inflation expectations, and money growth were, in fact, unrelated to inflation. These findings caused quite a stir and even led the Wall Street Journal to declare that “everything markets think they know about inflation might be wrong”. This understanding misses, in my view, the deeper and more important point of the Cecchetti et al. paper. As the authors note in a separate blog post, the lack of a relationship between the standard indicators and inflation is actually an indication that the Fed has done a good job in managing inflation:While the USMPF report is titled Deflating Inflation Expectations, we do not conclude that expectations are unimportant. In fact, quite the opposite: the failure of measured inflation expectations to help forecast changes in inflation is probably a side effect of monetary policy’s success in stabilizing them. This point, though, is a subtle one that is often missed by observers and that is why I wrote my piece for The Hill. Drawing upon Nick Rowe's work, I used the following example to illustrate the idea:Imagine that the Fed is a driver, the economy is a car, the gas pedal is monetary policy and the car's speed is the inflation rate. The Fed’s objective here is to keep the car moving steadily along at 65 miles per hour.  When the car starts climbing hills, the Fed pushes further down on the gas pedal. When the car starts descending from the hills, the Fed lays off the gas pedal. Over many hills and miles, the Fed is able to maintain 65 MPH by making these adjustments to the gas pedal.   A child sitting in the backseat of the car who was oblivious to the hills but saw the many changes to the gas pedal would probably conclude the gas pedal has no bearing on the speed of the car. After all, no matter what happened to the gas pedal the car’s speed never changed.   As outside observers, we know better. We know the drive

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