Non Farm Payrolls Does Not Change the Economic Picture

Non Farm Payrolls Give Fed No Reason To End QE, In Spite of Its Attempt To Scare Speculators Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner The BLS today reported a seasonally adjusted (SA) gain of 155,000 in December nonfarm payrolls. While the number met consensus expectations, there were a few problems below the surface of the headlines. The SA number compared with a decline of 243,000 in the actual, not seasonally adjusted number (NSA). Don’t be alarmed by that. December  is always a down month. Last year the December NSA decline was 207,000. In 2010, it was 296,000. The 10 year average decline for December for 2002 to 2011 was 343,000.  However, that was skewed by two very bad years, 2008 and 2009. This year’s number was better than 4 of the past 10 years, including 2008 and 2009. It was therefore only so-so. The seasonal adjustment methodology gives the catastrophic numbers of 2...