On Payrolls, Do Investors Fear A 1994 Redux?
January 4, 2013 - 8:08am
Via Steven Englander of Citi, The median Bloomberg expectation for NFP is 153k, Citi is at 140k; the central tendency of the forecasts is about 125-185k. Among forecasts that have changed today (presumably because of ADP) the median is 180k. Not everyone shades forecasts because of ADP (especially given its relatively poor forecasting track record) but it seems possible that the true market forecast has shifted up somewhat, maybe to around 160k.. Before the Minutes were released, there was little anticipation or discussion on payrolls. Now that the Minutes are out and have raised market fears that the fed will pull back from ease earlier than anticipated, investors are worried about a repeat of 1994, when a surprise Fed tightening after a long period of easy money (by standards of those days) devastated fixed income markets. Then 10yr Treasury yields rose 170bps over a two month pe...
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