Philly Fed Survey - 2012 Revisions Show Much Weaker Economy

From Streettalk Daily X-Change
January 10, 2013 - 2:54pm

Here is the problem with all economic analysis - data revisions.  Each month economists, analysts and the media work off reported numbers to make assumptions about the economy.  However, the problem is that most of the assumptions made generally wind up being wrong when the data is revised.   This is one reason why predicting recessions is so difficult.  Currently, there are many that foresee "no recession" in the coming months and that may well be the case.  However, as I have discussed previously , the problem that exists for me, any other student of the economy, is that we are all working with lagging data that continues to be revised at much later dates.  Waiting on these data revisions is specifically why the National Bureau of Economic Research's (NBER), who officially dates recessions in the U.S., announcements are always months after the recession actually started.   This...

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