Q4 2012 Bank Earnings Outlook -- Lower Mortgage Volumes Suggest Anything?
January 9, 2013 - 5:54am
I am scheduled to be on Bloomberg TV today with Tom Keene and Sara Eisen from 7-8 AM ET today -- Chris It’s time for Q4 2012 bank earnings and, once again, the message from the TBTF banks will be that all is well – although not as well as one might hope. As I noted in the IRA comment, “Bank Outlook 2013: Lower Mortgage Volumes, Higher Interest Rates,” the refinance boom is over. The question now is whether the banks will shift gears and start supporting more sales of new and existing homes. Looking at street projections for 2013 and 2014, the assumption is a steady rise in new home construction and sales. Unless you believe that the major banks are going to shift gears and start writing a lot of non-conforming loans, it is hard to see how these high volumes will be funded. Wells Fargo (WFC), for example, in its latest housing report by Brian Ye, Nicholas M...
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