Recession Markers Have Evaporated Except for ECRI’s Recession

Written by Steven Hansen This past  week Industrial Production (analysis here) finally exceeded the July peaks, and now all of the economic broad measures are at 2012 highs.  On 07 December 2012, Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), a New York-based  independent forecasting group stated: Following our September 2011 recession call, we clarified its likely timing in December 2011. Based on the historical lead times of ECRI’s leading indexes, we concluded that, if it didn’t start in the first quarter of 2012, it was very likely to begin by mid-year. But we also made it clear at the time that you wouldn’t know whether or not we were wrong until the end of 2012. And so it’s interesting to note the rush to judgment by a number of analysts, already asserting that we were wrong. It is now 2013, and in a week and a half we will see the advance estimate of 4Q2012 ...