The Most Overbought Dow Stocks

From Forbes - Options
January 3, 2014 - 11:04am

The stock market started off the New Year on the downside for the first time since 2008. But still, the Spyder Trust (SPY) is just 1\% below the recent highs. The declining issues outweighed the advancing ones by over a two-to-one margin, which has dropped the McClellan oscillator to +58 on the close. The oscillator did form a slight negative divergence at Tuesday?s highs. The futures are higher before the opening, and it would take several consecutive down days to suggest that a deeper correction was underway. The important support for the S&P 500 (SPX) is in the 1,800-1,810 area. As I noted yesterday, in my technical market review, the bullish sentiment is quite high, with the number of bearish financial newsletter writers close to a 26-year low. It will take a more severe decline before these numbers start to turn around. With 83\% of the stocks in the Dow Industrial now above their 50-day MAs, the Dow is clearly in overbought territory, but below the recent high at 90\%. At the correction lows in August and September, less that 20\% were above their 50-day MAs. Those types of readings create a more favorable risk-buying opportunity. Therefore, when I ran my monthly starc band scan of the thirty Dow Industrial stocks on New Year?s day, I was not surprised to find quite a few stocks near their starc+ bands. When a stock or ETF is close to this band it is considered to be a high-risk buy, since 93\% of the price activity should stay within these bands. The SPDR Dow Industrials (DIA) closed last month 3.5\% below its monthly starc+ band. However, these overbought stocks are also typically market leaders and therefore should be attractive for new purchase once they either correct, or trade in a range where the risk can be better controlled.

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