We Are Still Going Sideways

  Here are slides of my updated/revised presentation on sideways markets.  Over the last three months I’ve given talks on sideways markets three times, to CFA Societies in South Florida, New Zealand, and Atlanta.  It is very hard to be excited about the US stock market.  I read that Rich Bernstein, former chief investment strategist at Merrill Lynch, is very optimistic about US stocks; he believes we are at a point similar to where the market was in 1982 – at the beginning of the 1982-2000 secular bull.  After you’ve gone through my slides, you’ll understand why it is so hard for me to share Rich’s excitement. Stocks were so expensive in 1999 that 12 years of economic growth did not cure the excesses of overvaluation.  In fact, 12 years into this sideways market, valuations are still 30% above the historical average, while ...