Weekly Market Commentary: New 52-Week High Spike

From Fallond Stock Picks
January 27, 2013 - 5:09pm

The rally is close to a top as marked by the spike high in the 19-day EMA for both the NYSE and Nasdaq. For the NYSE, this spike is the highest in over 10 years, so there is a good chance Friday's strong finish will turn out to be the actual top for this phase of the rally.  While the Nasdaq spike hasn't reached the heights of 2003, it has exceeded spikes from previous late event rallies (e.g 2007).The Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above the 50-day MA is also heavily overbought and has reached a spike high. However, spike highs in this breadth metric rarely match the actual top in the market.The Nasdaq Bullish Percents finally reached declining resistance. A good opportunity to look for a pullback in the index.Despite coming close to a high, the Nasdaq hasn't cleared the swing high in 2012. Given the spike highs in the aforementioned breadth indices, it's unlikely the Nasdaq will get ...

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