Will LGIVs Be The 'Straw' To Break China's Credit-Fueled Growth 'Back'?
November 23, 2012 - 7:40pm
We presented a detailed look into China's credit bubble earlier this week and why serial-extrapolators may well have to adjust their strategy calls sooner rather than later; but the more we look around in the detritus of China's non-centrally-issued datasets, the more concerned we become. To wit, the major issuance of local government investment vehicles (LGIVs) in the last few months to stabilize growth amid falling fiscal revenue growth. The unintended consequence of PBoC-sponsored debt restructurings (as Barclays notes, rolling over debt via the issuance of new products or buyouts by asset management companies) is creating a false sense of security for these instruments, reinforcing the belief of an 'implicit government guarantee'. We tend to agree with Barclays when they conclude that the underestimation of the credit risks in both the trust loans and bond markets could induce exces...
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